About Those Early Season Picks

Prize filly Rags to Riches is out for the year with a hairline fracture. Notional broke his ankle in April. E Z Warrior was sold for breeding. AGS and Nobiz remain.

Looking over the pedigrees and records of the three-year-olds expected to do well this year on the thoroughbred circuit, I chose E Z Warrior, Notional, and Nobiz Like Shobiz to shine in Triple Crown races. Any Given Saturday I kept off stage in the wings, just in case (because his pedigree is too good to be true, and because I love the cleverness of his name).

Choosing Rags to Riches was a no-brainer.

How did my choices pan out thus far, with the Breeders' Cup championships and Horse of the Year awards closing in?

If it hadn't been for injury and the unexpected, I'd have been right on the money all the way around.

First to go off the trail was E Z Warrior. He was 2-0 as a juvenile and won his only race as a three-old, and trainer Bob Baffert couldn't wait to get him into the Triple Crown field. But E Z's owner saw baby E Zees. Ahmed Zayat sold the colt's breeding rights to Coolmore Stud and ended E Z's racing career.

Injury took an extreme toll this season. Notional fractured an ankle in April. After an outstanding win in the Belmont Stakes, Rags to Riches fell ill, then suffered a hairline fracture in her next race. Perhaps, she will never see the track again. Like E Z Warrior's connections, Rags's people might believe use of the breeding shed while the opportunity exists is the next best way to go.

I've got two boys left. Nobiz Like Shobiz and Any Given Saturday seem to be hitting their best strides in post-Triple Crown contests. Nobiz is not headed for the Breeders' Cup field. He's found new life on grass. But AGS will be in the Classic, carrying my last best hopes.