A gassed Smarty Jones couldn't find the finish line in time in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. In the last few yards, little Birdstone, with the artful Edgar Prado aboard, split by the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes champion to spoil Smarty's Triple Crown title try.
What was the problem for Smarty Jones and jockey Stewart Elliott? It was mainly one of rating.
Smarty ran rank in the first three quarters of the race, meaning he wouldn't settle to the pace Elliott desired. The Pennsylvania-bred was a huge competitor. He enjoyed front running.
To front run in the Belmont Stakes is usually not good strategy. To be sure, some champion thoroughbreds have wired the field in the Belmont. It was not the strategy, however, that trainer John Servis and jockey Elliott wanted for Smarty Jones.
If Elliott could rate the dual classic champ, that is, make him accept a reasonable pace behind the leaders that would not rob him of his speed before he would need it, a Triple Crown title could be won, Servis figured.
Thoroughbreds are schooled to run fast over short distances, or at intervals. This is why they are referred to as having gears, or a number of runs in a single race. A jockey must rate his mount, hold him in check, until the moment is right to burst to the lead and overcome the rivals.
Some horses rate exceptionally well, "listening" to the jockey's signals and "feeling" the moment through the reins. If an individual is easy to hold, his chances of having a winning burst of speed are good. Front runners are usually difficult to rate.
An unrated, or rank, horse will use his speed up too early and gas himself out. Smarty Jones dueled Eddington and Rock Hard Ten twice through fast early fractions of :22-4/5 (blitzing!) in the third quarter, and :23-4/5 in the fourth quarter against Servis's strategy and Elliott's hold.
The distance of the Belmont Stakes is one quarter mile longer than a three-year-old thoroughbred has previously run. At this distance, strategy many times revolves around the jockey's ability to get his mount to the finish line first by attempting the right holds and relying on timing as to when to let his fellow go.
Edgar Prado put Birdstone in perfect rated position to get into gear to overtake Smarty Jones and hit the wire first. Smarty was gearless, too exhausted to thwart Birdstone's last length challenge.
But anything can happen in a horse race.
Secretariat defied all logic in his spectacular Belmont run, pulling away like a race car and beating second place by 31 lengths, seemingly all on his own.
That's why it's called horse racing, not jockey racing.